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US Dollar May Weaken Further: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

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US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit – Talking Points

  • US Dollar weakened versus ASEAN FX on fiscal stimulus bets
  • Declines may persist if policymakers inch closer to a package
  • ASEAN event risk: Bank of Indonesia, MAS, Singapore GDP

US Dollar ASEAN Weekly Recap

The haven-oriented US Dollar weakened last week against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. Rising US fiscal stimulus bets, after back and forth with President Donald Trump, improved general risk appetite. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) soared 4.18% last week, closing at its highest since the middle of January. Capital flowed into developing economies, boosting some of their currencies given their sensitivity to external forces.

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Last Week’s US Dollar Performance

US Dollar May Weaken Further: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

*ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP

External Event Risk – US Fiscal Stimulus, Election Polling, Key Economic Data

After the main components of the first US fiscal stimulus package, the CARES Act, expired at the end of July, investors have been eagerly awaiting further measures from policymakers. Even the Federal Reserve has stressed the importance of fiscal stimulus. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan expressed his hesitation to add further quantitative easing at this point.

With that in mind, President Donald Trump has said that he wants more aid than either party is offering. The Democratic-proposed bill is about $2.2 trillion. Lately, Joe Biden’s gaining lead in the polls ahead of November’s election has likely been contributing to the jubilant performance in equities. The markets are essentially pricing in a larger package. Polls that continue facing Biden may continue boosting stocks.

Meanwhile, rosy economic data surprises are coming in few and far between. The Citi Economic Surprise Index tracking the US is at its lowest since the middle of June. Markets are forward looking, so while the US Dollar may gain on lackluster retail sales and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data, hopes of stimulus could keep USD under pressure against its ASEAN counterparts.

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ASEAN, South Asia Event Risk – Bank of Indonesia, Monetary Authority of Singapore, GDP

The ASEAN economic docket is fairly busy this week. Top-tier event risk include the Bank of Indonesia and Monetary Authority of Singapore policy announcements for IDR and SGD respectively. Indonesia’s central bank is expected to hold its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 4.00% Tuesday. What USD/IDR may focus on is commentary about the exchange rate. The central bank has been intervening to stabilize its currency.

The MAS will hold its policy announcement on Wednesday. Economists’ are not anticipating for a shift in its approach for managing the exchange rate. Unlike most central banks, the MAS gives up control of lending rates for exchange rate management. Policy is anticipated to remain unchanged. What could be more interesting to watch is Singapore’s third-quarter GDP report due on the same day.

The nation is heavily reliant on the external sector. After shrinking 42.9% q/q, growth is expected to rise 33.3%. That would be a sign of a global economy that is recovery from Covid-19, especially if it overshoots estimates. This could add further downside pressure to USD/SGD. Other important items this week include Indian, Indonesian and Chinese trade data. Check out the DailyFX economic calendar for more!

On October 5th, the 20-day rolling correlation coefficient between my ASEAN-based US Dollar index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose to -0.92 from -0.90 last week. Values closer to -1 indicate an increasingly inverse relationship, though it is important to recognize that correlation does not imply causation.

ASEAN-Based USD Index Versus MSCI Emerging Markets Index – Daily Chart

US Dollar May Weaken Further: USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

Chart Created Using TradingView

*ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter





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British Pound (GBP) Latest – PMIs Warn of Q4 Slowdown, Brexit Talks Continue

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Brexit, Vaccine Talks and GBP/USD Price, Analysis and Chart:

  • UK PMIs in expansion territory but the service sector slows down.
  • Brexit optimism as both sides return to the negotiating table.
  • GBP/USD presses against 1.3100

The latest UK PMIs showed a sharp slowdown in business activity in October, compared to the previous month, due to a ‘much weaker contribution from the service economy’. While all three readings show the economy expanding, ‘the slowdown would have been even more pronounced had it not been for exports rising as overseas customers sought to secure orders before potential supply disruptions as Brexit draws closer’, according to Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at IHS Markit. Williamson expects the UK economy to expand in Q4, but the rate of growth ‘looks to have slowed sharply and the risk of a renewed downturn has risen’.

British Pound (GBP) Latest - PMIs Warn of Q4 Slowdown, Brexit Talks Continue

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There is a growing sense of optimism that the EU and UK can come to a post-Brexit trade deal in the next couple of weeks as both sides re-commit to fresh talks, starting today. These talks will continue over the weekend and into next week and beyond with both sides now implying that there could be compromises made to seal a deal. An article in the Daily Telegraph also said that senior figures in the EU’s negotiating team have been told not to leak details of the talks, as it is ‘vital the negotiations are given a last chance for success’.

In other Sterling-friendly news, the Oxford University vaccine trials are showing positive results and according to a University of Bristol report the vaccine ‘successfully produces a strong immune response’. The UK government has already purchased 60 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca drug which may be available for the vulnerable by the end of the year.

GBP/USD broke back above 1.3100 in early turnover but is now fading lower. The pair continue to be buttressed by Brexit hopes while ongoing US stimulus talks are adding volatility to the US dollar. As yet there is no new stimulus deal although reports suggest that there is a possibility that a deal may be struck, although not before the November 3 presidential election. With ongoing Brexit trade talks and US stimulus discussions, GBP/USD has a pair of heavyweight fundamental drivers in play, and as such caution is warranted.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (April – October 23, 2020)

British Pound (GBP) Latest - PMIs Warn of Q4 Slowdown, Brexit Talks Continue



of clients are net long.



of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 35% -21% -4%
Weekly -16% 35% 8%

IG client sentiment data show 36.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.74 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 17.32% higher than yesterday and 27.12% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.02% lower than yesterday and 51.58% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

Traders of all levels and abilities will find something to help them make more informed decisions in the new and improved DailyFX Trading Education Centre

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.





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Hong Kong Connect Opens China’s ETF Market to Global Investors By Bloomberg

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© Reuters. Hong Kong Connect Opens China’s ETF Market to Global Investors

(Bloomberg) — China’s fast-growing $157 billion market for exchange-traded funds will be directly accessible to overseas investors from Friday, at least four years since the plan was first hatched.

Four so-called “feeder” ETFs will begin trading in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the first batch in a project aimed at connecting the two markets. The Shenzhen funds will track the China Enterprises Index and the S&P New China Sectors Index, while the Hong Kong-listed ETFs will follow the benchmark CSI 300 Index and a gauge of China’s 5G companies.

The investment vehicles, popular with retail traders around the world because they’re among the cheapest way to trade an index, will collect capital locally and settle trades across the border. Some 900 million yuan ($135 million) of funds has been gathered in a pre-sale of the ICBC CSOP S&P New China Sectors ETF, said Melody He, managing director at provider CSOP Asset Management Ltd.

Regulators in Hong Kong have been mulling broadening trading links with mainland China to include ETFs since at least 2016. The plan was delayed partly due to complex clearing and settlement issues. At $40 billion, Hong Kong’s ETF market is smaller than the mainland’s even though its first fund was launched five years before China’s in 1999. ETFs in China nearly doubled in value in the first half of this year.

“This is the very start of ETF connectivity,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Sharnie Wong.

While there are ETFs in Hong Kong, London or New York following China’s onshore equity market, the tracking error can be as high as 15%, partly due to limits on foreign ownership. The feeder ETFs can better replicate mainland benchmarks because their providers are local and won’t be subject to caps. Overseas investors are currently permitted to own no more than 30% in yuan-denominated shares.

Unlike other major stock markets in the U.S. or Japan, China — the world’s second largest — isn’t overrun by ETFs. Individual investors haven’t caught on to the products even though costs can be a lot lower than with mutual funds, partly due to little demand for individual stock research.

China ETFs Give Retail Investors Access to Soaring Tech, Ant

ETFs can be traded in real time and in the U.S. are growing increasingly complex and diverse since the first one came about in 1993. China’s first ETF was launched by China Asset Management Co. in 2004. They only started to gain traction in China after MSCI Inc. added yuan-denominated shares to its benchmarks in 2018.

Cross-border trading of ETFs between Hong Kong and mainland China will take time to grow, said Wong, adding that the experience of the stock connect scheme launched in 2014 between both sides could be instructive.

“It could take six years for northbound trading to contribute 5% to mainland China’s ETF turnover, assuming participation of international investors in ETFs is similar to that of A-shares,” she said.

“It may take only two years for southbound trading to contribute 5% to Hong Kong’s ETF turnover, if mainland investors appetite for Hong Kong listed ETFs is similar to that of stocks.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Europe’s Economy Risks New Contraction From Virus Curbs By Bloomberg

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© Reuters Europe’s Economy Risks New Contraction From Virus Curbs

(Bloomberg) — The resurgence of the coronavirus has knocked Europe’s economic recovery back a step and raised the possibility of another contraction.

IHS Markit’s monthly measure of business activity fell to a four-month low of 49.4 in October from 50.4 in September. Within the report is a clear, divergent trend of manufacturing strength being offset by damage to services from the second wave of the pandemic.

New government curbs as well as consumer fears of the virus are driving the two-speed economy. In Paris and eight other major French cities, authorities introduced a curfew this month that’s hitting restaurants and bars particularly hard. In Germany, a Bavarian district imposed a two-week lockdown after infections climbed above a rate that triggers an automatic tightening of restrictions.

While the weakness is largely limited to services, the fallout on jobs and spillovers to the rest of the economy will worry policy makers. The deteriorating outlook strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to pump more monetary stimulus into the economy, and governments may have to extend expensive aid programs.

IHS Markit warned that the euro-area economy could shrink again this quarter. Its report said employment fell again in October, confidence deteriorated and orders declined.

“While the overall downturn remains only modest, and far slighter than seen during the second quarter, the prospect of a slide back into recession will exert greater pressure on the ECB to add more stimulus and for national governments to help cushion the impact of Covid-19 containment measures,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

 

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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