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Trick-Or-Treating Slump to Hit Cocoa Farmers in Top Growers By Bloomberg

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© Reuters. Trick-Or-Treating Slump to Hit Cocoa Farmers in Top Growers

(Bloomberg) — Fewer Americans will trick-or-treat this Halloween as Covid-19 infection numbers continue to climb. While kids may be disappointed, the worst effects will be felt in Africa, where the world’s top cocoa producers may struggle to keep paying farmers a premium.

Ivory Coast and Ghana raised the price they pay cocoa growers by more than 20% for the larger of two annual crops. But with the pandemic keeping people at home, hurting Halloween sales that account for 10% of Hershey Co (NYSE:).’s business, the West African nations may struggle to lure chocolate makers to buy beans at a high enough level to keep paying farmers the promised premium.

The two countries, which account for about 70% of supply, have started charging a premium of $400 a metric ton for their beans, a move designed to improve incomes. But while the main crop is already sold, they still need to sell their smaller harvest, according to a Bloomberg survey of six traders, brokers and analysts.

“With a second wave of infections, are people really going to partake in Halloween?” said Judy Ganes, president of J Ganes Consulting. “Not sure how manufacturers with weak demand will be able to keep agreeing to pay higher prices, even if fundamentally they understand the need to.”

Cocoa processing in Europe fell 4.7% in the third quarter, to the lowest for that period in four years, according the European Cocoa Association. In North America, bean grinding fell 4% to the smallest for the period since at least 2008, the National Confectioners Association said. Cocoa Association of Asia data will be published on Friday.

The pandemic had a “very severe” impact, leaving supply outpacing demand, Gerry Manley, head of cocoa at Olam International Ltd., the third-largest cocoa processor, said last month. A Bloomberg survey before the season, which started this month, forecast excess supplies of 200,000 tons, a four-year high, while Citigroup (NYSE:) sees a 300,000-ton surplus.

Ivory Coast and Ghana usually sell about 80% of the crop before harvest starts, and pay about 60% of the international prices to growers. Forward sales this season took longer than usual to pick up as the countries negotiated with processors and chocolate makers regarding the premium, known as the Living Income Differential.

“They haven’t got the forward sales for the crop just yet,” said Jonathan Parkman, deputy head of agriculture at London-based futures and options brokerage Marex Spectron Group. “I think the LID issues will blow up in February and March and it will be very difficult to persuade buyers that they will need to pay the LID for the 2021-22 season.” They may need to restructure the LID, he added.

s have held up well this year despite the pandemic as uncertainty about elections in West Africa has supported prices. Still, the price of cocoa butter, which accounts for 20% of the weight of a chocolate bar, has plunged more than 10% since early April, amid global lockdowns, according to data from KnowledgeCharts, a unit of Commodities Risk Analysis.

“I think the futures market is in trouble,” Ganes said. “The market isn’t breaking down just yet because of worries over the situation in the Ivory Coast leading into the elections end of this month. However, indications on demand are pretty poor. Cocoa butter prices are starting to melt.”

 





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Gold Rally Enters Third Day on Stimulus Chase as Dollar Wilts By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com – Gold rallied for a third straight day on Wednesday as the dollar tumbled and bulls in the yellow metal chased the prospects of a Covid-19 economic stimulus before the U.S. election in two weeks.

settled at $1,929.50, up $14.10, or 0.7%. It rose 0.4% in two previous sessions.

, which reflects real-time trades in bullion, rose $16.89, or 0.9%, to $1,922.86 by 3:23 PM ET (19:23 GMT).

The , which pits the greenback against six major currencies, tumbled for a third straight day on Wednesday, losing 0.5% to hit a seven-week low of 92.46 on speculation that the White House and Congress might reach agreement on a new coronavirus relief deal. Gold is an outright hedge for any losses in the dollar.

Hopes for a stimulus deal were kept alive on Wednesday by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who said he was “very hopeful that progress is being made” in the negotiations. Meadows added that the Trump administration will continue to stay engaged in talks with House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the coming days.

Congress, led by Pelosi and the Democrats, approved a Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) stimulus in March, dispensing roughly $3 trillion as paycheck protection for workers, loans and grants for businesses and other personal aid for qualifying citizens and residents.

Democrats have been locked in a stalemate since with President Donald Trump’s Republican party on a successive package to CARES. The dispute has basically been over the size of the next relief as thousands of Americans, particularly those in the airlines sector, risked losing their jobs without further aid.

It’s anyone’s guess if a deal could be struck before the Nov. 3 presidential election, where Trump faces Democrat challenger Joe Biden. A preliminary agreement over the stimulus could be a positive talking point in the election for Trump, who trails Biden in most polls.

Another stimulus is also critical for the economy, which may be forced into a slower and weaker recovery from the Covid-19 without more aid, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Wednesday.

The US economy was stuck in a “slight to modest” pace of recovery in September, with the job market struggling, as businesses tried to operate amid continued impact from the pandemic, the central bank’s Beige Book report of business conditions showed.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Kinder Morgan quarterly profit falls 10% By Reuters

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© Reuters. The headquarters of U.S. energy exporter and pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc. is seen in Houston

(Reuters) – U.S. pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc (N:) reported a 10% drop in quarterly profit on Wednesday as a steep drop in prices due to the coronavirus pandemic hurt production and transportation of the fuel.

Net profit available to the company fell to $455 million, or 20 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30 from $506 million, or 22 cents per share, a year earlier.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Are Soybean Prices Cheap ? – Growing Your Money

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Are Soybean Prices Cheap ?

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the November contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session continuing it’s bullish momentum up another 9 cents at 10.73 a bushel as there are still concerns about weather conditions in the country of Brazil which is the 2nd largest producer in the world.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 9.14 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss on a hard basis only at 10.34, however the chart structure will improve in 3 trading sessions therefor the monetary risk will also be reduced.

If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I thought prices could touch the $11 level and I still do believe that as planting in Brazil is only 8% complete which is way behind schedule causing some concern at this market fundamentally & technically speaking has everything going for it especially since China stepped up to its Phase 1 trade agreement with the United States buying large quantities in recent months.

The U.S farmer has really struggled over the last couple years, but now it’s reaping the rewards of the trade agreements as corn prices are now above $4 as wheat prices which I also have a bullish recommendation is hitting a 5 year high as this is a terrific thing to see and I still believe higher prices continue. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

 

TWITTER—@seeryfutures 

 

 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

If you’re looking to open a Trading Account click on this link www.admis.com 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 



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