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Precious Metals & Energy – Weekly Review and Calendar Ahead By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com — Is it really happening? After all the back and forth worthy of a Wimbledon duel, the stimulus showdown between U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is on to another match. 

By the time it reaches its third set Monday – starting with Friday’s call phone between the two, then Saturday’s ominous Senate Republicans’ session that balked at the White House’s new $1.8 trillion plan – the whole affair might be back to where it began: nowhere.

Just to be sure, this stimulus is super important to gold if bulls in the haven are hoping to get back into the $2,000-per-ounce territory. It will also help oil to steady somewhat in the $40-per-barrel region. But more than the markets, millions of jobless Americans need help right away, while tens of thousands of airline workers need paycheck assistance if they aren’t to join the ranks of the unemployed.

For now, what’s apparent is this thing is no longer a tussle between the White House and Democrats. It’s evolved into a game of wits between the Republican-controlled Senate and Donald Trump. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who decides what goes to its floor, has no interest in convincing his lot that a “bigger” stimulus package is better as the president thinks. 

With just weeks to go until to the Nov.3 U.S. election, Trump needs to badly deliver something good to potentially undecided voters. That – and tanking markets – are what convinced the president to swing from a no-deal to must-conclude position on the stimulus, just within 48 hours. He partially got what he wanted: The best weekly performance in months for the and .

Yet, Trump’s chief ally in the Senate isn’t willing to play ball with him on the stimulus, ostensibly because McConnell has his eyes somewhere else: to be precise, the hearing and confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett. Talk about mixed priorities.

This explains Saturday morning’s conference call that Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows had with GOP senators, where many denounced the proposal by attacking the price tag as too big, questioning the overall direction and criticizing individual proposals. These come from several people who participated in the call or were briefed on its contents and spoke to the media on conditions of anonymity.

Sen. John Barrasso, Republican senator from Wyoming, also called a proposed expansion of Affordable Care Act tax credits to the unemployed “an enormous betrayal” of the GOP’s long-standing opposition to Obamacare.

It remains to be seen whether Trump will be able to use his persuasion, or raw power, over McConnell to achieve a triumphant third set on the stimulus. It will be easy for the whole thing to fall apart, considering that the Democrats’ demand itself is for a deal of at least $2 trillion.

Friday’s full-on restart of COVID-19 relief talks were what brought gold to a positive close for a second straight day and also bolstered its gain in as many weeks.

“Gold prices skyrocketed … after the White House blinked first over the stimulus deadlock,” said Ed Moya, analyst at New York’s OANDA.  “Gold looks like it will benefit from a stimulus deal before the election.  It is unclear if Democrats will accept the latest … offer, but it seems the White House is determined to get something done.”  

The restart of the Mnuchin-Pelosi talks also figured in oil’s return to the green lane after two weeks in the red, though the bigger catalysts were supply disruptions from the evolving Hurricane Delta and a brief Norwegian oil strike.

Despite a near 10% gain on the week, the outlook for crude remains suspect in the near term given the typically slower demand period in the fall season, and the escalation of coronavirus infections in several U.S. states as well as in Europe, analysts said. 

Also, with the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association and industry union Lederne reaching an agreement Friday to end the oil strike in the Scandinavian state, market bulls may need to find a bigger price mover in the week ahead.

Precious Metals Review

last traded at $1,936.40, after officially settling Friday’s session at $1,926.20 an ounce on New York’s Comex — up $31.10, or 1.6%, on the day. For the week, it rose about 1%.

, which reflects real-time trades in bullion, last traded at $1,930.23 — up $36.37, or 1.9%. For the week, it rose 1.6%.

Trump told a radio show on Friday that he wants a new and bigger coronavirus relief approved for the American people than what was negotiated previously in Congress, an apparent U-turn from just days ago when he ordered such talks canceled.

“I’d like to see a bigger stimulus package than either the Republicans or Democrats are offering,” the president told the Rush Limbaugh radio show referring to both his party as well as the opposition. “I’d like to see money going to people.”

Earlier in the week, Trump shocked the nation and caused the stock market to plunge by announcing that he was terminating negotiations for a new COVID-19 stimulus. He blamed House Speaker and leader of the Democrats in Congress, Nancy Pelosi, for the aborted talks, saying she demanded an outsized $2.4 trillion package versus the $1.6 trillion offered by the Republicans. Pelosi didn’t respond directly to the accusation and questioned instead the mental capacity of the president, who was still on drugs for his COVID-19 treatment.

The stimulus talks appeared back on track Friday after White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox Business that Trump had approved a revised package to negotiate with Democrats. The Wall Street Journal later reported that the White House was working on an $1.8b trillion package, citing people familiar with the discussions. 


Energy Weekly Review

New York-traded , the key indicator for U.S. crude prices, last traded at $40.55, after officially settling Friday’s trade at $40.60 per barrel — down 59 cents, or 1.4%, on the day. For the week, WTI rose $3.55 or 9.6%.

London-traded crude, the global benchmark for oil, last traded at $42.80, after finishing the session at $42.85 — down 49 cents, or 1.1%, at $42.85. For the week, Brent was up 9.1%.

Oil closed off Friday’s lows after government data showed that nearly 92% of oil production and almost 62% of gas output in the U.S. Gulf Coast of Mexico have been shut as precaution ahead of Hurricane Delta.

While President Donald Trump pushed Congress for a large new COVID-19 stimulus on Friday that marked a complete U-turn from the talks he ordered canceled earlier in the talks, concerns about the growing pandemic in the United States as elsewhere still weighed on the market, said analysts.

The other uncertainty hanging over oil: the outcome of the Nov. 3 U.S. election where Republican president Trump faces a resurgent Democrat candidate Joe Biden, according to polls.

“Positioning from CTAs in the market is very short currently and additional macro shorts may have added some support into a market as it’s pretty clear that the pain trade was/is up as COVID is worsening,” said Scott Shelton, energy futures broker at ICAP (LON:) in Durham, North Carolina. 

“The U.S. elections are turning into a carnival and quite frankly, the oil fundamentals look pretty dire.”

Energy Calendar Ahead

Monday, Oct 12

Private Cushing stockpile estimates

Wednesday, Oct 14

weekly report on oil stockpiles.

Thursday, Oct 15

EIA weekly report on

EIA weekly report on

EIA weekly report on  

EIA weekly report on

Friday, Oct 16

Baker Hughes weekly survey on

 





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Commodities

Gold Rally Enters Third Day on Stimulus Chase as Dollar Wilts By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com – Gold rallied for a third straight day on Wednesday as the dollar tumbled and bulls in the yellow metal chased the prospects of a Covid-19 economic stimulus before the U.S. election in two weeks.

settled at $1,929.50, up $14.10, or 0.7%. It rose 0.4% in two previous sessions.

, which reflects real-time trades in bullion, rose $16.89, or 0.9%, to $1,922.86 by 3:23 PM ET (19:23 GMT).

The , which pits the greenback against six major currencies, tumbled for a third straight day on Wednesday, losing 0.5% to hit a seven-week low of 92.46 on speculation that the White House and Congress might reach agreement on a new coronavirus relief deal. Gold is an outright hedge for any losses in the dollar.

Hopes for a stimulus deal were kept alive on Wednesday by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who said he was “very hopeful that progress is being made” in the negotiations. Meadows added that the Trump administration will continue to stay engaged in talks with House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the coming days.

Congress, led by Pelosi and the Democrats, approved a Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) stimulus in March, dispensing roughly $3 trillion as paycheck protection for workers, loans and grants for businesses and other personal aid for qualifying citizens and residents.

Democrats have been locked in a stalemate since with President Donald Trump’s Republican party on a successive package to CARES. The dispute has basically been over the size of the next relief as thousands of Americans, particularly those in the airlines sector, risked losing their jobs without further aid.

It’s anyone’s guess if a deal could be struck before the Nov. 3 presidential election, where Trump faces Democrat challenger Joe Biden. A preliminary agreement over the stimulus could be a positive talking point in the election for Trump, who trails Biden in most polls.

Another stimulus is also critical for the economy, which may be forced into a slower and weaker recovery from the Covid-19 without more aid, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Wednesday.

The US economy was stuck in a “slight to modest” pace of recovery in September, with the job market struggling, as businesses tried to operate amid continued impact from the pandemic, the central bank’s Beige Book report of business conditions showed.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Commodities

Kinder Morgan quarterly profit falls 10% By Reuters

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© Reuters. The headquarters of U.S. energy exporter and pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc. is seen in Houston

(Reuters) – U.S. pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc (N:) reported a 10% drop in quarterly profit on Wednesday as a steep drop in prices due to the coronavirus pandemic hurt production and transportation of the fuel.

Net profit available to the company fell to $455 million, or 20 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30 from $506 million, or 22 cents per share, a year earlier.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Commodities

Are Soybean Prices Cheap ? – Growing Your Money

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Are Soybean Prices Cheap ?

Soybean Futures—Soybean futures in the November contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session continuing it’s bullish momentum up another 9 cents at 10.73 a bushel as there are still concerns about weather conditions in the country of Brazil which is the 2nd largest producer in the world.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 9.14 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss on a hard basis only at 10.34, however the chart structure will improve in 3 trading sessions therefor the monetary risk will also be reduced.

If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I thought prices could touch the $11 level and I still do believe that as planting in Brazil is only 8% complete which is way behind schedule causing some concern at this market fundamentally & technically speaking has everything going for it especially since China stepped up to its Phase 1 trade agreement with the United States buying large quantities in recent months.

The U.S farmer has really struggled over the last couple years, but now it’s reaping the rewards of the trade agreements as corn prices are now above $4 as wheat prices which I also have a bullish recommendation is hitting a 5 year high as this is a terrific thing to see and I still believe higher prices continue. 

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

 

TWITTER—@seeryfutures 

 

 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

If you’re looking to open a Trading Account click on this link www.admis.com 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 



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