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Pandemic could delay energy demand recovery to 2025: IEA By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Istanbul

By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – A slow economic recovery from the pandemic threatens to delay a full rebound in world energy demand to 2025, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

In its central scenario, a vaccine and therapeutics could mean the global economy rebounds in 2021 and energy demand recovers by 2023, the IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said in its annual World Energy Outlook.

But under a “delayed recovery scenario”, the timeline is pushed back two years, it said.

In such a case, the IEA predicts “a deeper near-term slump erodes the growth potential of the economy, high unemployment wears away human capital, and bankruptcies and structural economic changes mean that some physical assets become unproductive as well.”

The Paris-based IEA sees global energy demand falling by 5% in 2020, CO2 emissions related to energy by 7% and energy investment by 18%.

Demand for oil is set to fall by 8% and coal use by 7% while renewables will see a slight rise.

Graphic – Energy sector CO2 emissions: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gjnvwjqqqpw/emissions.JPG

Overall, the energy watchdog said it was too soon to say whether the pandemic had acted as a spur or a setback to governments and the energy industry as they seek to make the industry more sustainable.

IEA chief Fatih Birol told Reuters that policy makers were lagging behind: “We are far from reaching our climate goals with the existing policies around the world.”

“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end within the next 10 years, but in the absence in a large shift in government policies, I don’t see a clear sign of a peak. A global economic rebound would soon bring oil demand back to pre-crisis levels,” he said in an interview.

Graphic – Oil Demand: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/ygdvzkzzxpw/oildemand.JPG

Uncertainty over future demand and the oil price plunge in 2020 could mean that oil producers are unsure how to gauge investment decisions leading to a mismatch in supply and demand, stoking future market volatility, the IEA warned.

In its central scenario, the IEA predicts “upstream investment picks up from the low point in 2020, underpinned by a rise in the oil price to $75 a barrel by 2030. However, it is not clear whether this investment will come in time and, if it does come, where it will come from.”

Graphic – Value of future oil and gas production: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jznpnlyyrpl/estimatedvalue.JPG

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Biden presidency could cut slow path to resumed Iran, Venezuela oil exports By Reuters

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3/3
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden attends a Voter Mobilization Event in Cincinnati

2/3

By Timothy Gardner, Marianna Parraga and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

WASHINGTON/MEXICO CITY/LONDON (Reuters) – Democratic U.S. presidential hopeful Joe Biden’s promised return to diplomacy with OPEC-members Iran and Venezuela could cut a path for a return of their oil exports should he win, but not before many months at least of verifications, talks and deal-making.

The timing of a potential resumption of shipments is crucial to world oil markets: U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateral sanctions on the two countries since taking office in 2017 have blocked up to 3 million barrels per day (bpd), or 3% of world supply. Iran has taken the biggest hit, with exports shrinking by around 2 million bpd to around 500,000 bpd.

The sanctions fit squarely with Trump’s policy of energy dominance to boost oil exports from the United States, which in 2018 became the world’s largest producer of crude.

A broad change in Iran policy would likely come first, but the soonest that full, sustainable oil exports could return from that country is about a year from now, said Richard Nephew, the lead sanctions expert on the U.S. team that helped land a deal with five other world powers on Tehran’s nuclear program in 2015.

Trump withdrew the United States from that deal in 2018 over the objections of European and Asian counterparts. He argued the deal did not address Iran’s ballistic missiles program and militancy across the Middle East.

Biden, who was vice president under President Barack Obama when the 2015 deal was struck, has said he wants to offer Tehran a path back to diplomacy. If Iran commits to not acquiring a nuclear weapon, he would rejoin the deal and strengthen it.

Nephew, now a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said the requirement that Iran return to compliance with the 2015 deal would probably create implementation delays regardless of political agreements.

For example, Iran would need to downgrade its supplies of enriched uranium, which have built up during the Trump administration. Down-blending takes time, and verification by U.N. inspectors could take months.

As for negotiating a follow-on deal, that would take longer. A Biden administration would first be busy with the basic work of finalizing leadership teams and prioritizing policies, he said. Moreover, organizing multilateral negotiations on a new Iran deal would take additional time.

“This is going to wait,” Nephew said.

Bob McNally, a national security council energy expert under former President George W. Bush and president of the Rapidan Energy Group, predicted a return of Iran’s oil exports in the second half of next year.

European officials are eager for a renewed relationship with Iran if Biden wins, but have not attempted to engage with his campaign on the issue ahead of the election, fearing blowback from the Trump administration should Trump win, three EU diplomats said.

The Biden campaign did not comment on Iran about this story, but pointed to a Biden piece https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html on CNN.com in September that said he would make an “unshakable commitment” to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

Iran is not anticipating quick relief from sanctions that have slammed its economy, said the head of an oil trading firm in Tehran. A presidential election scheduled in Iran for June 18 would almost certainly delay talks on the issue.

“It will take a long time,” the source said.

Once the politics are resolved, large shipments could return quickly. Iran has accumulated about 100 million barrels of oil in floating storage and offshore tanks in countries like China, according to Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East with consultancy FGE.

“Iranian oil can reach markets overnight,” he said. “Iran can rely on this export for months, while working to bring its production to previous levels.”

In the meantime, a Biden administration could be more lax in enforcing sanctions and award a new round of waivers, allowing a few countries to buy limited amounts of Iranian oil, said Ed Crooks, vice chairman, Americas for Wood Mackenzie. Trump axed the waiver program in 2019.

MURKIER PATH ON MADURO

Biden shares Trump’s desire to see the replacement of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a socialist whose 2018 election was widely seen as fraudulent.

Biden would likely retain sanctions against Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA in the near-term, according to Leopoldo Martinez, a strategist for Biden’s campaign on the Latino vote.

But the strategy would probably shift substantially under Biden, with more input from allies and trading partners on a path forward.

“We are not seeking to dismantle the sanction policy, but to apply sanctions in an intelligent way, helped by a multilateral effort and with specific goals to be achieved, mainly free, fair and credible elections,” Martinez said.

Sanctions could theoretically be lifted once those goals are achieved.

Meanwhile, a Biden administration would also push for humanitarian relief in Venezuela, where much of the population has suffered under sanctions on oil, the lifeblood of its economy, Martinez said.

Rapidan, McNally’s group, said in a note that humanitarian relief could include an easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan imports of fuels like gasoline, but not a break on sanctions on petroleum exports.

Even in the event of a change of leadership that resulted in a lifting of sanctions, a quick return of Venezuela’s exports beyond about 1 million bpd, up from about 500,000 bpd currently, is unlikely for six months to a year, Rapidan said.

A lack of investment has left equipment and fields in Venezuela, which holds the largest oil reserves in the world, in a state of disrepair.

“That one is a much more distant scenario than Iran,” Columbia’s Nephew said about Venezuela. “I’m not sure we have the same ability to call the shots there.”





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Monsanto loses final appeal over French farmer’s weedkiller accident By Reuters

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© Reuters. The logo of Monsanto is seen at the Monsanto factory in Peyrehorade

PARIS (Reuters) – Bayer’s (DE:) Monsanto (NYSE:) division on Wednesday lost a final appeal in a long-running French legal battle in which the crop chemical maker has been held liable for the accidental inhalation of a weedkiller by a crop farmer.

Monsanto had been trying to overturn a decision by an appeals court in 2019 that had found the company’s product safety information to have been inadequate in relation to the accident involving farmer Paul Francois in 2004.

France’s highest court rejected Monsanto’s latest appeal in a ruling published on Wednesday, opening the way for another court to decide on what damages should be awarded to Francois.

The farmer has argued that the fumes he inhaled from the weedkiller Lasso, a product that was subsequently withdrawn from the French market, caused neurological problems, including memory loss, fainting and headaches.

Bayer said in an emailed statement that it was reviewing the court ruling. Bayer also said in the statement that court-appointed medical experts had found previously that the incident did not cause the illnesses cited by Francois.

Crop protection products “do not present a risk to human health if they are used under the conditions of use defined in the context of their marketing authorisation,” Bayer said.

Anti-pesticide group Generations Futures, which has supported Francois in his court case, said it welcomed “this historic decision in which an agro-chemical multinational is at last found liable for the harm caused to this courageous farmer.”

Francois has previously sought damages of around 1 million euros ($1.2 million).

Bayer, which acquired Monsanto for $63 billion in 2018, has been facing a wave of litigation in the United States over allegations that Monsanto’s glyphosate-based weedkiller Roundup causes cancer.

Bayer, which argues Roundup is safe, is trying to settle the litigation through a proposed $11 billion payment.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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How High Are Copper Prices Going ? – Growing Your Money

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How High Are Copper Prices Going ?

Copper Futures—Copper futures in the December contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session up another 465 points at 3.1955 a pound hitting a 2 ½ year high continuing its bullish momentum as this trend is strong to the upside.

Copper prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend continues to accelerate on a weekly basis as the housing market in the United States is extremely strong therefore demand for copper at the present time remains high as I still do not believe a top has been formed.

At the current time I’m not involved, however I do believe the entire precious metal sector is headed higher as I am keeping a close eye on gold and silver as I see no reason to be short copper and if you are long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at the 3.03 level as an exit strategy.

The next major level of resistance is between the 3.30 / 3.50 level as there is still room to run to the upside as the volatility could even increase exponentially as historically speaking copper can have crazy price swings on a daily basis.

TREND:HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

 

TWITTER—@seeryfutures 

 

 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

If you’re looking to open a Trading Account click on this link www.admis.com 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 



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