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OPEC cuts 2021 oil demand forecast again as virus cases rise By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed stock graph and Opec logo in this illustration picture

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – World oil demand will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought as coronavirus cases rise, OPEC said on Tuesday, adding to headwinds faced by the group and its allies in balancing the market.

Demand will rise by 6.54 million barrels per day(bpd) next year to 96.84 million bpd, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report. The growth forecast is 80,000 bpd less than expected a month ago.

A further weakening of demand could threaten plans by OPEC and allies to taper in 2021 the record oil output cuts they made this year. OPEC is keeping an eye on the situation but currently has no plan to cancel the supply boost.

“We believe that this is the calculated volume to cater for the demand coming back,” United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei told the Energy Intelligence Forum on Tuesday, referring to the 2021 output increase.

Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus crisis curtailed travel and economic activity. While in the third quarter an easing of lockdowns allowed demand to recover, OPEC sees the pace of economic improvement slowing again.

“While the 3Q20 recovery in some economies was impressive, the near-term trend remains fragile, amid a variety of ongoing uncertainties, especially the near-term trajectory of COVID-19,” OPEC’s report said of the economic outlook.

“As this uncertainty looms large, amid a globally strong rise in infections, it is not expected that the considerable recovery in 3Q20 will continue into 4Q20 and in 2021.”

OPEC has steadily lowered its 2021 oil demand growth forecast from an initial 7 million bpd expected in July.

The group also cut its estimate of world oil demand in the current quarter by 220,000 bpd. It left its estimate of the scale of this year’s historic contraction in oil use steady at 9.47 million bpd.

OPEC OUTPUT DOWN

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd starting on May 1.

The cut was tapered to 7.7 million bpd in August and OPEC+ plans further tapering next year by boosting supply by 2 million bpd from January.

In the report, OPEC said its output fell by 50,000 bpd to24.11 million bpd in September. That amounted to 104% compliance with the supply cut pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – up from August’s figure of 103%.

OPEC also forecast demand for its crude will be 200,000 bpd lower than expected next year at 27.93 million bpd.

Assuming global demand rebounds as expected, this in theory leaves room for OPEC members to increase output in 2021 by over 3.8 million bpd from September’s rate without causing a glut.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Commodities

Oil Up, But Oversupply Fears Cap Gains By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Adam Claringbull

Investing.com – Oil was up on Tuesday morning in Asia after Monday’s large falls. Surging coronavirus numbers globally are pushing demand expectations down.

rose 0.51% to $41.02 by 12:05 PM ET (4:05 AM GMT) and were up 0.44% to $38.73.

Oil pulled up from its downward trajectory in Asian trade this morning, with a record-breaking 11th hurricane on its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Zeta is due to make U.S. landfall on Wednesday, with U.S. rigs and refineries shutting down in preparation for it its arrival.

However, the global surge in COVID-19 cases, especially in Europe and the U.S., has dampened investor enthusiasm for oil, with few signs of an economic recovery any time soon. The U.S. is particularly hard hit, especially in the Sunbelt and Midwest regions.

Lowered demand expectations are not the only factor hampering the market, Libya has returned from its embargo much more rapidly than expected, with the nation now producing close to 1 million barrels per day (bpd), up from less than 100,000 bpd in July.

Further negative sentiment is being raised by the lack of the U.S. government’s ability to decide on and pass a coronavirus stimulus package, with only a very small likelihood of relief measures being passed before the country’s Nov. 3 elections. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that she was hopeful a deal could be reached with the White House before that date, but it is unlikely that the U.S. Senate will also agree.

Director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, Bob Yawger, told Reuters: “The market is under pressure from a toxic brew of no stimulus, rapidly increasing coronavirus cases, and the surprise increase of oil production in Libya.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has been planning to ease previously agreed production cuts, however, this is looking increasingly unlikely in the present climate, with OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo saying on Monday: ““We have no illusions, this recovery will take a long time,” at the virtual 2020 India Energy Intelligence Forum.

Investors await crude oil supply data from the , due later in the day.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Oil selloff pauses, but outlook shaky on surging coronavirus cases, supply woes By Reuters

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TOKYO (Reuters) – Oil prices regained a semblance of stability on Tuesday after suffering sharp losses over the previous session and last week, as a resurgence of coronavirus cases globally hit prospects for crude demand while increasing supply also hurt sentiment.

The gloomy backdrop is set to keep prices under pressure over the coming day.

In early Asia, Brent crude () was up 12 cents, or 0.3%, at $40.58 a barrel by 0039 GMT, having dropped more than 3% overnight. U.S. oil () was up 13 cents, or 03%, at $38.69 a barrel, after also declining more than 3% on Monday.

The lack of progress in striking an agreement for a U.S. coronavirus relief package added to the general market gloom, although U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday she was hopeful a deal with the White House can be reached before the Nov. 3 elections.

A wave of coronavirus infections sweeping across the United States, Russia, France and many other countries has undermined the global economic outlook, with record numbers of new cases possibly forcing some countries to impose fresh restrictions as winter looms.[MKTS/GLOB]

“The market is under pressure from a toxic brew of no stimulus, rapidly increasing coronavirus cases, and the surprise increase of oil production in Libya,” Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

Prices got some support from the potential drop in U.S. production as oil companies began shutting offshore rigs with the approach of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

The worst is over for the crude market, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said on Monday.

But that contradicted an earlier remark from OPEC’s secretary general, who said any oil market recovery may take longer than hoped as coronavirus infections rise around the world.

Libyan production is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the coming weeks, the country’s national oil company said on Friday, a quicker return than many analysts had predicted.

That is likely to complicate efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrict output to deal with weak demand.

OPEC+, the producer group and allies including Russia, is planning to increase production by 2 million bpd from the beginning of 2021 after record output cuts earlier this year.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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U.S. EPA considering E15 labeling changes at gas pumps: sources By Reuters

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© Reuters. A sign advertising E15, a gasoline with 15 percent of ethanol, is seen at a gas station in Clive

By Stephanie Kelly

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is considering changes to labels for gasoline containing higher blends of ethanol, or E15, in an effort to appease the biofuel industry’s concerns that current labels discourage use of the fuel, according to four sources familiar with the matter.

Expanding the market for E15 has long been a policy goal for farmers and producers of ethanol, a corn-based product, but concerns that some older vehicles don’t run well on the product have been a headwind. Current federal E15 labels warn of possible engine damage.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, has been trying to shore up support in the Farm Belt ahead of the election through favorable announcements for biofuel advocates.

An announcement for a proposal on the labeling changes could come soon, two of the sources said. None of the sources could say exactly how the administration might alter the labeling.

EPA and the White House did not immediately comment.

President Donald Trump in mid-September said in a tweet he would allow states to permit fuel retailers to use their current pumps to sell E15.

Under U.S. law, refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel pool, or buy credits from those that do. Refiners that prove the requirements harm them financially can get waivers from the obligations.

So-called small refinery exemptions, or SREs, have been a lightning rod of controversy between the Corn and Oil lobbies. Biofuel advocates say the exemptions hurt demand for their product, while the oil industry refutes that and says the waivers helps small refiners stay afloat.

The Trump administration in September sided with farmers in the ongoing debate when it rejected scores of requests from refiners for waivers that would have retroactively spared them from their obligation.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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