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Oil steady as rising coronavirus cases stokes demand concerns By Reuters

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© Reuters. A pedestrian wearing a protective mask walks past an oil derrick in Huntington Beach

By Jessica Jaganathan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil prices were steady on Wednesday on concerns that fuel demand will continue to falter as rising coronavirus cases across Europe and in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, could impede economic growth.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on Tuesday that oil demand in 2021 will rise by 6.54 million barrels per day (bpd) to 96.84 million bpd, 80,000 bpd less than its forecast a month ago, as a result of the economic dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Brent crude futures () for December fell by 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $42.37 a barrel by 0142 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate () futures were down 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $40.11.

The heads of two of the world’s biggest oil producers, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, discussed the current situation in the energy markets during a telephone call, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

OPEC and producer allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will stick to their plans to taper oil production cuts from January, Suhail al-Mazrouei, the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday.

“Oil prices are steady in Asia as the dollar rally takes a break and as the Russian and Saudis show a united front in making OPEC+ oil producers live up to their pledged output cut promises,” said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

“Crude prices are looking very vulnerable as the coronavirus continues to spread like wildfire across Europe and trending higher in the U.S.,” Moya added.

On the supply side, crude oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico continued to recover four days after Hurricane Delta made landfall with the amount shut falling to 44% on Tuesday from 69% on Monday.

U.S. crude oil inventories were seen falling last week, while distillate stockpiles likely declined for a fourth week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

The poll was conducted ahead of reports from American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Both the reports were delayed by a day because of the Columbus day holiday on Monday in the United States.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Commodities

Wheat Prices Higher 4th Day In A Row – Growing Your Money

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Wheat Prices Higher 4th Day In A Row

Wheat Futures—Wheat futures in the December contract is trading higher for the 4th consecutive session up another $0.02 at 6.27 a bushel as prices have hit another 5 year high as fundamentally and technically speaking this commodity remains strong.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 5.40 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 5.87 as an exit strategy on a hard basis only as I’m not willing to risk any more than that price level.

The large money managed funds and small speculators are long this market as they think higher prices are ahead and I agree with them as I still think there’s a chance we can hit the $7 level in the coming weeks ahead.

Wheat prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend is strong to the upside and if you take a look at the daily chart the uptrend line remains intact as the volatility could even expand exponentially to the upside especially if weather conditions in the Great Plains part of the United States become adverse so stay long. 

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

VOLATILITY: HIGH

 

 

If you are looking to contact Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) at 1-630-408-3325 I will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com 

 

TWITTER—@seeryfutures 

 

 Email: mseery@seeryfutures.com

If you’re looking to open a Trading Account click on this link www.admis.com 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and futures options. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.

 



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Commodity Tracker: 6 charts to watch this week

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Libyan oil flows have resumed but their stability remains uncertain, while India’s coal powered generation has dipped, granting gains to renewables. S&P Global Platts editors and analysts also discuss the latest Chinese actions on coal imports, Norwegian gas flows to Europe, and separate challenges faced by power markets in the UK and California.

1. Libya’s fragile oil return complicates market outlook

 

Libya oil production timeline 2019 2020

Click to enlarge

What’s happening? Light sweet Libyan crude is starting to trickle through after an eight-month hiatus as rival groups agreed a tentative truce. The prospect of over 1 million b/d hitting the market in the coming months coincides with a brittle demand outlook amid a second wave of coronavirus infections.

What’s next? Libya’s crude output is poised to rise to over 500,000 b/d soon following the restart of the 300,000 b/d Sharara field. But the return is likely to be gradual and prone to delays due to the shakiness of the peace deal and presence of armed groups at key oil infrastructure. The key eastern oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider remained closed as stateowned NOC has not lifted force majeure from these ports due to the presence of armed groups there. But loadings from the 250,000/d Zawiya terminal will resume very soon. Most analysts are now expecting Libyan crude output to reach 650,000-700,000 b/d by year-end but many have warned that longer term stability remains uncertain.

Go deeper: Infographic – Libya’s oil infrastructure, output trend and exports

2. Is Indian coal generation proving less ‘sticky’ than expected?

 

Coal in India power mix

What’s happening? India, one of the world’s largest coal consuming countries, has seen a sharp drop in the coal share of power generation this year. Historically, coal made up over 75% of India’s power mix as the country’s energy demand grew rapidly on account of urbanization and economic development, and domestic coal reserves were cheap and abundant. But this year, for the first nine months, coal has accounted for around 69% of the grid-connected generation mix on average, with its lowest at around 63% for June and August, the lowest in years, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. This is due to the overall drop in power consumption as the COVID-19 pandemic triggered lockdowns, but also because other energy sources like renewables increased in a big way in recent years, but only began to show results during the pandemic.

What’s next? The drop in coal consumption is a huge win for clean energy advocates, as India’s coal addiction has been hard to dislodge, even as major Asian nations like Japan and China begin to move towards long-term de-carbonization. Renewable energy still has the scope to make big inroads into India’s power sector, natural gas is only getting started and there is some optimism that slower growth in coal consumption could be a steady long-term structural trend.

 

3. Australian coal exports to China could be hit by ban in 2021

 

China coal arbitrage

What’s happening? Chinese coal consumers received verbal notice from China’s customs to stop importing Australian thermal and coking coal with immediate effect due to political tensions between the two countries, S&P Global Platts reported Oct. 9. Producer BHP later said its Chinese customers had asked to defer coal deliveries due to the reported order.

What’s next? China has not yet confirmed details formally, but Australia is taking the news seriously, as coal is a major export commodity for the country. S&P Global Platts Analytics has been saying for many months that China will enforce its annual coal quota, despite a large seaborne coal price arbitrage window being open since April, likely in an attempt to encourage domestic buying of coal to help stimulate the economy. While politics are involved, the year-on-year increase in Australian coal exports to China so far this year is a key factor. Any official announcement of a ban should not  affect Australian coal exports to China for the rest of 2020 as coal port import quotas are being enforced. However, it could mean close to a third of China’s Q1 2021 imports displaced and Chinese buyers having to source coal from other markets. Any import ban is likely to affect Chinese steel mills more than power utilities.

 

4. Norwegian gas flows rebound after setbacks

 

Norway gas exports to Europe UK

What’s happening? Norwegian gas flows have rebounded following the end of strike action in early October, with exports now back at highs not seen since the end of March. It has been a volatile few weeks for Norwegian gas, with the strike impacting some 40 million cu m/d of supply, a heavy maintenance schedule in September and a fire at the Hammerfest LNG plant that forced its closure.

What’s next? Norwegian flows to Europe are traditionally higher in the peak-demand winter months, and with day-ahead prices having recovered to Eur14/MWh in recent weeks from their lows below Eur4/MWh in May, operators may look to maximize flows. How Norwegian gas fares in the coming weeks may depend, however, on the reliability of its offshore assets and whether any unplanned outages could impact flows.

 

5. California heat, wind boosting power prices…

 

California power prices

What’s happening? The California power grid operator called for voluntary electricity conservation Oct. 15 with high temperatures driving up cooling demand. Pacific Gas and Electric Company had already de-energized certain electrical lines to about 53,000 customers as part of a Public Safety Power Shutoff. The SP15 pricing point on-peak day-ahead power price was $86.78/MWh for Oct. 15 delivery, a 15% day-on-day jump.

What’s next? Daily high temperatures are forecast to fall this week compared to last in Northern California from the high 70s Fahrenheit into the mid 60s, according to the National Weather Service. However, any return to hot, windy weather could threaten power infrastructure and lead to additional power price spikes.

 

6. … while in UK loss of CCGTs, ageing nuclear pose risks to winter supply

 

UK power price spikes October 2020

What’s happening? The Winter Outlook for UK power supply is generally comfortable, according to National Grid in its annual update Oct. 15. While generation capacity margins are down year on year, they remain well above government guidelines based on a loss of load risk of three hours a year. The reassuring tone of the report, however, was at odds with the state of the system Oct. 15-16, when tight margins due to low wind, rising demand, reduced generation availability and reduced import capacity pushed hourly prices up dramatically, spiking over GBP180/MWh for the evening peak.

What’s next? Power traders believe any recurrence of high pressure weather systems this winter, reducing wind speeds across regions, will prompt further bouts of scarcity pricing similar to those seen last week and in mid-September. For the UK the problem has been exacerbated by Calon Energy’s decline into administration, taking two large CCGTs out of the market at short notice. Add to this an ageing, unreliable UK nuclear fleet and delays to new interconnection capacity, and the expectation is for more capacity warnings from the Grid at short notice, initiating a scramble for flexible supply from gas and, if prices rise over GBP100/MWh, diesel gensets.

Reporting and analysis by Matt Boyle, Eric Yep, Stuart Elliott, Andre Lambine, Henry Edwardes-Evans and Jared Anderson



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Oil Down, With China Reporting Smaller-Than-Expected GDP Growth By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Gina Lee

Investing.com – Oil was down on Monday morning in Asia, giving up earlier gains after China released data showing a smaller-than-expected rise in GDP during the third quarter.

were down 0.37% to $42.77 by 11:51 PM ET (3:51 AM GMT) and fell 0.41% to $40.95. Both Brent and WTI futures remained above the $40 mark, with WTI futures rolling over to the December contract on Oct. 18.

China reported 4.9% growth in year-on-year for the third quarter earlier in the day, smaller than the 5.2% growth in forecasts prepared by Investing.com. However, other indicators showed a strong recovery overall for the world’s second largest economy. grew 6.9% year-on-year and grew 3.3% year-on-year in September. The was 5.4%, down from the previous quarter’s rate of 5.6%.

Investors had hoped that positive data from China, a top oil importer, would be indicative of recovery and outweigh ongoing concerns over fuel demand as the number of global COVID-19 cases continues to increase, as well as increasing supply. Chinese oil purchases are expected to slow down during the current quarter as the country continues to fight a COVID-19 outbreak in the city of Qingdao, and as independent refiners face high inventories as well as limited import quotas.

Adding to the black liquid’s woes was the bleak outlook for the oil market presented by OPEC+ during the previous week’s discussions.

The body’s Joint Technical Committee reportedly warned that a prolonged second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe and a jump in Libyan output could lead to oversupply in 2021, in the worst-case scenario. The gloomy outlook could see changes to OPEC+’s plans to ease output cuts, which would see 2 million barrels per day added to the market in 2021.

Meanwhile, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi set a Tuesday deadline for Congress to pass the latest stimulus measures ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential elections, around two weeks away. President Donald Trump also renewed his offer to increase the measures’ price tag.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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