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Four Big Takeaways From the IEA’s World Energy Outlook By Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Once a year, the International Energy Agency attempts to impose some order on the chaotic world of oil, gas, power and carbon by publishing detailed scenarios on how the next few decades might unfold.

Here are the four big takeaways from the 2020 World Energy Outlook, published on Tuesday:

Forecasting Is Harder Than Ever

Predicting the future of energy is an even greater challenge than usual this year, coming after what the IEA described as a disruption not seen since “World Wars and the Great Depression.”

Just about every global trend in fuel and power demand pivots on questions more suited to an epidemiologist than an energy expert: Will there be an effective and widely available vaccine for Covid-19? Will habits learned during lockdown, such as remote working and an aversion to flying, outlast the pandemic?

The IEA attempted to cut through this knot by offering one main scenario in which the pandemic is brought under control next year, and another that features prolonged virus outbreaks and lockdowns.

The gulf between the two outlooks is vast.

In the former, oil use recovers by 2023, in the latter it takes as long as a decade. Global electricity demand in 2030 in the pessimistic case is 27,000 terawatt hours lower than in the main scenario, equivalent to twice the consumption of Japan.

Coal Is Dying, Long Live Solar

The fuel that was once the staple of utilities will probably never return to pre-pandemic levels of demand. By 2040, coal’s share of the energy mix will fall below 20% for the first time since the industrial revolution, the IEA said.

Meanwhile, power produced from solar photovoltaics has become cheaper than electricity from plants fired by fossil fuels in most nations. Renewables will push coal off the grid, taking 80% of demand growth to 2030.

“I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA. “Based on today’s policy settings, it’s on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022.”

No Peak on the Horizon

Predictions of peak oil demand are very much in fashion, as even oil giants like BP (NYSE:) Plc say consumption may never again reach the heights seen in 2019.

The IEA, formed in response to the oil shocks of the 1970s and duty-bound to preserve the security of energy supplies, has long resisted such predictions.

The agency stuck to that position this year. Even its most pessimistic Covid-19 scenario showed petroleum consumption regaining pre-pandemic levels by the latter part of this decade, and plateauing there in the 2030s.

“In the absence of a larger shift in policies, it is still too early to foresee a rapid decline in oil demand,” the report said.

Even so, the agency tiptoed closer than ever to an acknowledgment that the petroleum industry is facing an historic change. “The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade,” Birol said.

You Ain‘t Seen Nothing Yet

For all the once-in-a-century events triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is an even bigger challenge.

This year, the IEA modeled for the first time how this might come about. “To reach net-zero emissions, governments, energy companies, investors and citizens all need to be on board – and will all have unprecedented contributions to make,” the report said.

There must be technological and behavioral changes on a massive scale. Nascent positive trends in power, transport, buildings, and humanity’s daily habits will need turbo boosters.

“There’s a lot of work to be done,” said Birol.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.





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Commodities

Oil Down 3% on Week on U.S. Rig Climb, Libya Supply Prospects By Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com – U.S. crude draw numbers aren’t helping oil prices as investors zero in on the climbing rig count and prospects of Libyan supplies returning in a big way.

Both West Texas Intermediate, the key indicator for crude prices in the United States, and Brent, the global benchmark for oil, fell about 3% on the week after the rose to 211 from last week’s level of 205. 

Oil rigs, an indicator of future production, have steadily climbed since the week ended Sept 4, when they stood at 180.

Adding to the weight on the market were estimates that Libyan oil output, mostly offline since January, had risen to 500,000 barrels per day and will likely grow further by end-October.

“Low sales and bad margins tells me that crude buying could disappear in the U.S. until Q1,” said Scott Shelton, energy futures broker at ICAP (LON:) in Durham, North Carolina.

New York-traded settled at $39.85 per barrel, down 79 cents, or 1.9%. For the week, WTI fell 2.5%.

London-traded settled at $41.77, down $1.16, or 2.7%.

fell 1 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 18, falling largely within the expected draw of 1.02 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information announced on Wednesday.

Crude stored at , Oklahoma, delivery point for contracted barrels of WTI also rose within expectations, climbing by 975,000 barrels versus the forecast 1.1 million barrels.

But jumped by 1.9 millions barrels — an 180-degree build over analysts’ estimates.

The EIA did deliver a positive number on , which drew down by 3.8 million barrels, or double expectations. This was ostensibly due to the strong delivery-and-trucking activity as many people remained cloistered in their homes ordering everything from clothing to groceries. 

But the agency also surprised traders by estimating that U.S. crude production fell by 9.9 million barrels per day last week, down 600,000 bpd from the previous week. 

The drop in production jarred with the rise in oil rigs logged since mid-September, leading some to think the impact on output from this month’s Hurricane Delta had been overestimated. Delta, which struck Louisiana as a Category 2 storm, shuttered nearly 92% of all oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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China’s purchases of U.S. farm goods at 71% of target under trade deal: U.S. By Reuters

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2/2
© Reuters. Senate Finance Committee hearing on U.S. trade on Capitol Hill in Washington

2/2

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – China has substantially increased purchases of U.S. farm goods and implemented 50 of 57 technical commitments aimed at lowering structural barriers to U.S. imports since the two nations signed a trade deal in January, the U.S. government said on Friday.

In a joint statement, the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said China had bought over $23 billion in U.S. agricultural goods to date, or about 71% of the target set under the so-called Phase 1 deal.

“Since the Agreement entered into force eight months ago, we have seen remarkable improvements in our agricultural trade relationship with China, which will benefit our farmers and ranchers for years to come,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement.

The deal defused a bitter trade war between the world’s two largest economies, but disputes over human rights, the COVID-19 crisis and technology have strained ties between Washington and Beijing, raising doubts about the prospects for deepening the agreement in a second phase.

Agriculture is one of the four areas where China pledged to increase its purchases of U.S. goods and services. Many experts question whether China will meet its overall targets this year given lockdowns imposed earlier this year to contain the virus.

The report showed outstanding sales of U.S. corn to China were at an all-time high of 8.7 million tons, while U.S. soybeans sales for marketing year 2021 to China were at double the levels seen in 2017.

U.S. exports of sorghum to China from January to August 2020 totaled $617 million, up from $561 million for the same period in 2017, it said.

U.S. pork exports to China hit an all-time record in just the first five months of 2020, and U.S. beef and beef products exports to China through August 2020 are already more than triple the total for 2017, it said.

In addition to these products, USDA expects 2020 sales to China to hit record or near-record levels for other U.S. agricultural products including pet food, alfalfa hay, pecans, peanuts, and prepared foods.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Democrats in U.S. drilling states push back against Biden oil remarks By Reuters

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© Reuters. Final 2020 U.S. presidential campaign debate in Nashville

By Nichola Groom

(Reuters) – Democratic candidates in oil drilling states were quick to distance themselves on Friday from comments by their party’s presidential candidate, Joe Biden, that indicated he would move the United States away from a reliance on oil.

From Texas to Montana, Democrats locked in tight congressional races in Nov. 3’s general election took to Twitter to affirm their support for the fossil fuel industries and workers in their states.

“I’ll always stand up to my party when it’s out of touch with our Montana way of life,” Governor Steve Bullock, who is running for U.S. Senate, tweeted on Friday.

President Donald Trump, who trails Biden in national opinion polls, accused his rival in their final presidential debate on Thursday of planning to destroy the oil industry, leading the former vice president to respond that he did believe the country should eventually replace oil with solar, wind and other forms of non-polluting power.

“I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Biden said.

“He is going to destroy the oil industry,” Trump said. “Will you remember that Texas? Will you remember that Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio?”

After the debate, Biden told reporters he was referring to a plan to stop subsidizing fossil fuels: “… they’re not going to lose their jobs. Besides, a lot more jobs are going to be created in other alternatives.”

Trump’s campaign seized on Biden’s remarks, promoting a new advertisement on Friday that said thousands of drilling jobs were at stake in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

“I disagree with VP Biden’s statement tonight,” Democratic Representative Xochitl Torres Small, whose district includes portions of New Mexico’s oil-rich Permian basin, tweeted after the debate, saying the country should not “demonize a single industry.”

Polls show Torres Small in a tight race against Republican opponent Yvette Herrell, who she narrowly unseated in 2018.

Torres Small said she was willing to break with her party on the issue, a sentiment echoed by Bullock, who briefly sought the Democratic presidential nomination himself, and U.S. Representative Kendra Horn of Oklahoma.

U.S. Representative Lizzie Fletcher, a Democrat running for re-election in Houston, the capital of the U.S. oil industry, said in a statement that Biden’s comments “fail to address the complexity of our energy needs and plan for our future.”

Biden says his $2 trillion plan to combat climate change through investment in clean energy will create millions of jobs, a stark contrast to Trump administration policies that promote fossil fuel development and play down the threat of climate change.

Nationally, Biden’s plan enjoys the support of two-thirds of voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll this month. But in states where the oil industry is a major employer, many voters are skeptical of a move away from fossil fuels.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris said Trump was blowing her running mate’s comments out of proportion.

“The president likes to put everything out of context,” the California senator said at a campaign stop in Atlanta.





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