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Exclusive: Second sovereign downgrade wave coming, major nations at risk

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© Reuters. Bank notes of different currencies are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, in this illustration picture

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By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Some of the world’s top economies could see their credit ratings cut or put on downgrade warnings in the coming months in a second global wave of coronavirus-related revisions, S&P Global’s top sovereign analyst has warned.

S&P’s sovereign group managing director Roberto Sifon-Arevalo told Reuters that the immense costs of supporting health systems, firms and workers through the pandemic was fundamentally altering some countries’ finances for the worse.

The rating agency has already downgraded or cut the outlooks on nearly 60 countries this year, but only relatively few have been higher-rated richer nations.

With some though piling on 15-20 points of debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) – amounts that would normally take four or five years to accumulate – and locked into higher spending for the next 3-5 years, that could be about to change.

“You are talking about ratings in the EU, or in highly developed countries like Japan or the UK or in this part of the world, the United States, that have been able to implement pretty massive fiscal and monetary packages to defend themselves,” Sifon-Arevalo said.

“The main point to see here is where do we see the trajectory going forward. If we see the trajectory as establishing more of a different structural pattern, then you are going to see some (rating) movements there.”

A total of 31 countries https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=46167886&From=SNP_RES_PO – almost a quarter of all those S&P rates – currently have “negative outlooks” on their ratings which more often than not get converted into downgrades.

Of the bigger economies it includes Australia’s prized triple-A rating, Italy and Mexico’s BBB scores and Spain’s A grade. However, a blizzard of new negative outlooks could be just as much of a worry at time when many major economies are seeing a resurgence of the virus.

“We are going through the revisions. Now, and over the next few months we will continue to do so,” Sifon-Arevalo said.

“I would say initially it’s going to be an outlook change. And again, there’s going to be those that maybe will come out of that and will come back to stable (outlooks) in a couple of years.”

“But then there will be those that will not come back to stable and they will keep going down the rating spectrum.”

Graphic: Near record numbers of countries on credit rating downgrade warnings https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/bdwvkjalepm/Pasted%20image%201602842161052.png

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There are two more groups of less well-off countries whose rating are also in the firing line.

In Latin America, Mexico and Brazil are under pressure as well as Colombia which is teetering on the last rung of investment grade and on a warning it could be cut to junk.

The final group includes some of the world’s poorest and most indebted countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where Sifon-Arevalo said more debt restructuring and defaults could be coming.

Zambia has already asked its international creditors to give it more time to pay some of its debts which have ballooned to 100% of its GDP, while countries like Angola and Ghana are spending roughly half of their government revenues just on making interest payments on their debts.

“I think we are likely to see more cases like Zambia’s,” he said. “You can imagine that spending 50 cents out of every dollar or peso or whatever currency you’re earning, just on paying interest it’s becoming pretty difficult.”

Graphic: Debt levels vs interest payments https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/nmovaykxzva/Pasted%20image%201602793370989.png

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Dow Jumps on Cyclicals Boost as Pelosi Touts Stimulus Deal Optimism By Investing.com

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© Reuters

By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com – The Dow rose Tuesday as economy-linked cyclical stocks climbed after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi touted optimism over getting a deal on stimulus, though said differences on key issues remain ahead of today’s deadline.

The rose 0.92%, or 159 points. The was up 1.07%, while the added 1.01%.

Pelosi suggested progress had been made with the White House on recent stimulus talks and she was hopeful a deal could be brokered by the end of the day. The house speaker conceded, however, that state and local money along with business liability remained sticking points.

Both renewed talks at 3PM ET today, after negotiations a day earlier helped chip away at differences.

The remarks firmed up expectations a deal could be in the offing after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow signaled uncertainty.

Stocks tied to the economy like industrials, materials and financials racked up gains intraday.

Financials got a boost from rising banking stocks, with Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) in the spotlight, up more than 2%, after the latter was reported to have reached a deal with the U.S. Department of Justice to pay over $2 billion for its role in the 1MDB scandal.

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:) were up more than 1%, while Citigroup (NYSE:) added more than 2%.

In tech, meanwhile, further signs of a government crackdown on the monopoly power of large cap tech did little to dent investor sentiment on the sector.

The U.S. government filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google on allegations it had violated competition law to preserve its monopoly over internet searches and online advertising.

Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: rose more than 2%, while Facebook (NASDAQ:), Apple (NASDAQ:) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:). Amazon.com (NASDAQ:) jumped 3%.

Elsewhere in tech, International Business Machines (NYSE:) fell 6% after reporting a third straight quarterly decline in revenue and keeping its guidance sidelined amid uncertainty from the ongoing pandemic.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:) was up more than 0.5% after raising its guidance and reporting quarterly results that topped Wall Street estimates in the wake of a pandemic-led boost to demand for its household products.

In other news, cash-strapped move chain AMC Entertainment (NYSE:) slumped more than 12% after warning of possible bankruptcy as it continues to seek additional liquidity to plug the financial hole as a result of the pandemic.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Canada working on possible aid for the airlines and travel sector, says finance minister By Reuters

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© Reuters. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland takes part in a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian government is very aware of the challenges facing airlines and the travel sector during the coronavirus pandemic and is working on possible aid, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Tuesday.

Freeland said she had spoken to the heads of Canada’s major airlines and unions last week but did not give details. Carriers and travel industry executives have repeatedly urged Ottawa for assistance as passenger numbers slump.

“We are obviously aware of the particular challenges that the travel sector, the airlines are facing right now,” she told a news conference when asked about an aid package.

“It’s definitely an issue we are looking at closely and working on,” she said.

Airlines have already received more than C$1 billion ($763 million) from a wage subsidy program that Ottawa introduced to help businesses deal with the pandemic, she said.

Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc told CTV on Sunday that Ottawa might take a stake in major airlines such as Air Canada and WestJet Airlines. Both carriers have suspended dozens of routes.

The Canadian branch of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers on Tuesday urged Freeland to consider partially or fully nationalizing Air Canada.

Earlier this month major labor unions said the aviation sector would suffer permanent damage unless Ottawa provided a C$7 billion 10-year low-interest loan to offset the effects of the pandemic.

($1=1.3113 Canadian dollars)

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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Denmark stocks lower at close of trade; OMX Copenhagen 20 down 0.14% By Investing.com

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© Reuters. Denmark stocks lower at close of trade; OMX Copenhagen 20 down 0.14%

Investing.com – Denmark stocks were lower after the close on Tuesday, as losses in the , and sectors led shares lower.

At the close in Copenhagen, the declined 0.14%.

The best performers of the session on the were William Demant Holding A/S (CSE:), which rose 5.15% or 10.5 points to trade at 214.5 at the close. Meanwhile, Danske Bank A/S (CSE:) added 1.68% or 1.6 points to end at 94.5 and Novozymes A/S B (CSE:) was up 1.49% or 6.1 points to 414.8 in late trade.

The worst performers of the session were Genmab (CSE:), which fell 1.99% or 46.0 points to trade at 2260.0 at the close. Oersted A/S (CSE:) declined 1.62% or 16.50 points to end at 1004.50 and AP Moeller – Maersk A/S B (CSE:) was down 1.49% or 160 points to 10550.

Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange by 80 to 60 and 11 ended unchanged.

Crude oil for December delivery was up 0.54% or 0.22 to $41.28 a barrel. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Brent oil for delivery in December rose 0.33% or 0.14 to hit $42.76 a barrel, while the December Gold Futures contract rose 0.08% or 1.45 to trade at $1913.15 a troy ounce.

USD/DKK was down 0.45% to 6.2929, while EUR/DKK rose 0.07% to 7.4429.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.38% at 93.073.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.





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